Eight million more lives and $14 trillion could have been saved if we had developed and rolled out a COVID-19 vaccine even faster than we did, according to the findings of a mathematical modeling study by 2020 Schmidt Science Fellow OJ Watson.
Developing a COVID-19 vaccine within a year was an unprecedented achievement.
But as part of efforts to strengthen future preparedness, a new study shows the huge difference it would make if we could roll out vaccines globally within 100 days of a pandemic outbreak.
The study aimed to better understand the potential effects of the 100 Days Mission: a G7 and G20-backed initiative led by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to cut vaccine development time for new pathogens to 100 days.
“Millions of people would have been alive still today, if that had been possible, but there are also massive economic benefits, which shows why the rationale for investing in developing vaccines is so impactful,” Dr. Watson said.
Its findings also highlight the importance of developed nations investing in the health systems and vaccine manufacturing capabilities of developing countries to enhance global preparedness for future pandemics.
Dr. Watson, in collaboration with colleagues from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, conducted an analysis to explore how the trajectory of the pandemic might have changed if scientists had succeeded in developing a vaccine in just one-third of the actual time required.
Their study, published in The Lancet Global Health, utilized computational modeling to simulate a scenario where the pandemic unfolded as it did—with school closures, lockdowns, and other interventions—but with the accelerated global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. The researchers then analyzed and compared this hypothetical scenario to the actual course of events during the pandemic.
The results showed that the 100 Days Mission could have prevented 8.33 million deaths from COVID, mostly among people in lower to middle-income countries (LMICs). Additionally, the estimated economic impact would have included a cost saving of USD 14.35 trillion, alongside an additional USD 1.45 trillion saved in hospital expenses and productivity losses.
By 2021, wealthier countries successfully vaccinated the majority of their populations and eased pandemic restrictions. In contrast, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were unable to achieve widespread vaccine coverage before the emergence of the more virulent Delta variant later that year. This not only resulted in a significantly higher loss of life but also had a profound impact on children’s education, as the tragedy left many children orphaned, disrupting their access to stable learning environments and long-term academic opportunities.
The study found that investing in vaccine manufacturing infrastructure and health systems in LMICs before the pandemic could have prevented 11 million deaths. Furthermore, under a scenario of universal vaccination, with earlier lifting of restrictions and prioritization of school reopening, schools could have resumed four months earlier on average, all while still saving 7.12 million lives.
The 100 Days Mission is ambitious, but Dr. Watson believes that it can be done: “We’ve shown we can develop a vaccine in a stressful, rapid emergency response phase, so if the correct amount of investment from a research and development perspective is put in now, when we’re not having to urgently respond to a pandemic, we can definitely bring that timeline to developing a new vaccine down.”
Achieving the 100 Days Mission will require significant investment in global manufacturing capacity to ensure equitable vaccine distribution and effective deployment across all countries. This will entail establishing robust infrastructure, including skilled personnel, cold-chain storage solutions to preserve vaccine integrity in warmer climates, and comprehensive supply chain systems, according to Dr. Watson.
The study underscores the transformative potential of the 100 Days Mission in future pandemic preparedness, illustrating how accelerated vaccine development and equitable distribution could drastically reduce loss of life and economic fallout. As global health organizations and nations work toward this ambitious goal, the findings provide a stark reminder of the critical role that timely investment in health systems and vaccine infrastructure will play in mitigating the impacts of future pandemics.